Who am I to make a list of predictions about the gaming industry? Well, I study it a lot more than people think and probably more than some of the gaming press. I am also a data nerd. I notice trends and see things differently than others do. I have also followed gaming news since 1987 (when I was old enough to read it).
And, after all, the only difference between me and a writer at a gaming magazine or website is my refusal to move to New York City or San Francisco. Seriously, homes are cheaper in Huntsville, Alabama.
And now, my list.
- More games will be downloaded than purchased in stores. I think it goes without saying mobile gaming has taken the world by storm. In fact, more than one billion people have downloaded Angry Birds (I don’t think there are even one billion total home gaming consoles). Also the home consoles will start offering more downloadable content. This past year I have purchased 17 games and only two of them I purchased on a physical media (both of which installed themselves onto the console making the discs essentially DRM keys). Downloading is more convenient. Only the game-and-return crowd will stick with physical media.
- Free to Play games will dominate population growth. Going back to the fact Angry Birds has been downloaded over a billion times only 25% of those downloads were paid versions. 75% of Angry Bird downloads have been free versions of the game or promotions that allowed you to download the whole game for free. While some of us debate the role of mobile games in the gaming market, right now they still count. And the sad fact is more people played Candy Crush than any home console game in 2013. This trend will continue as more people will play a free to play game than will play a paid for game.
- Pre-Pay games will dominate revenue. It may sound obvious, but despite free to play games generating more growth for the industry, more money will be made on pre-pay titles than their microtransaction counter parts. In 2012, Rovio had total revenue of over €152.2 million. Grand Theft Auto V (GTA V) alone pulled in over $1 billion. High quality pre-pay titles will continue to drive revenue for the industry and so the “rich get richer” mentality will stick as the bulk of gaming revenue will remain concentrated in just a handful of game publishers. Rockstar Games will make more money selling copies of GTA V than they will on the microtransactions embedded within the game.
- Steam Machine will be critical success but a commercial flop. The idea is great and makes sense. Valve is essentially unwilling to put the entirety of their success in the hands of Microsoft’s Windows Division. So creating a device and OS that can support it makes a load of sense from a business standpoint. However, not many people will buy it. Only Linux fans will bother installing it on custom built systems and the console will have a hard time competing against XBOX One, PS4, and Wii U. Tech writers will love it while consumers will take a pass. (See: Chromebook)
- Winner of this generation won’t be decided by Christmas. Sony and Microsoft will continue to move inventory as fast they can make them and Nintendo seems to have picked up pace. With a year head start in the race, Nintendo could hold its own for a while. That being said, XBOX One and PS4 will continue to dominate sales. However, it will be too early to call any of the three systems a winner or a failure.
- 3DS family will exceed all home console sales. The 3DS/2DS family of handhelds will still manage to sell well. While the home consoles struggle to maintain inventory, Nintendo seems to have the handheld market figured out. As a cheaper alternative to home consoles and a more controlled environment than Android or iOS (not to mention the better control) the 3DS family will dominate when compared to their full-sized competition. Add on top of that an arsenal of great games and Nintendo’s handheld will continue its winning ways.
- PS Vita will continue to flop. On the flip side of the 3DS is the Vita. The Vita, technically, is way more advanced than the 3DS. The problem is the Vita has always been more technically advanced than the Nintendo handhelds and that has never amounted to more sales. The Vita is a must-have for Sony loyalists but offer little to cause the average consumer to jump on. To put it simply, Nintendo has more first-party games worth playing than the entire Vita library. Expect the Vita to drag up the rear in this race.
- Wii U sales will surge. Many people forget the Wii U had the best-selling console launch in Nintendo history. While the numbers dropped off for a while, the release of Wind Waker rekindled sales for the console. When I went shopping with my son after Christmas, Toys R Us had no stock left. Nintendo just released in Super Mario 3D World what many people consider not only the best game of the year but maybe the best game in the Mario franchise. And I personally know of a few people who are planning to make the plunge when Mario Kart 8 is released. Wii U’s better catalog of first-party games will result in more sales.
- Top selling games for 2014 will feature two Wii U titles. The aforementioned Super Mario and Mario Kart games will continue to be game changers for the Wii U. While also resulting increased sales for the Wii U those two games will do enough to allow Nintendo to take of two of the top ten games for 2014 in sales. And that is assuming the next iteration in the Zelda franchise is kicked back to 2015 (not counting the temporarily named Hyrule Warriors).
- All three home consoles will see a minimum 10% price drop by Thanksgiving. A combination of reduced cost and reduced sales when compared to November 2013 will result in all three home consoles seeing a price drop. I fully expect Nintendo to start the trend at E3 when they announce a $249 price tag for the Wii U (the $299 bundle with Zelda is essentially a $239 console). Microsoft and Sony will feel the pressure and cut their prices as well.
As a bonus prediction, I will say the pressure will grow on Nintendo by the gaming press to ditch the Wii U and go a different route. I don’t think Nintendo will. They have always marched to their own drum and will continue to do so.
What will cause Nintendo to release another console will be the move to the x86 architecture by Sony and Microsoft. Having two major consoles on the same architecture as the PC will make it harder for game publishers to publish on the Wii U. And while Nintendo has always been known for its first-party titles, they will not want to make things harder for their third-party partners.
While I don’t expect it to happen in 2014 or 2015, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nintendo teases their next console at E3 2015. However, Nintendo seems to be taking the Apple route in the gaming industry. They don’t care if the other consoles are selling more; they only care about their own objectives. Nintendo seems to be more focused on quality or quantity. The attention to detail in all of their first-party games is evidence to the fact Nintendo builds great games, the Wii U is just the device that allows you to play them.
To Nintendo, their competition isn’t Microsoft or Sony. Their competition is their own reputation.
Commadore Bob's Analysis 